Master's thesis presentation. Ali is advised by Dr. Thomas Stecher (Carl Zeiss AG) and Prof. Dr. Felix Dietrich.
SCCS Kolloquium
The SCCS Colloquium is a forum giving students, guests, and members of the chair the opportunity to present their research insights, results, and challenges. Do you need ideas for your thesis topic? Do you want to meet your potential supervisor? Do you want to discuss your research with a diverse group of researchers, rehearse your conference talk, or simply cheer for your colleagues? Then this is the right place for you (and you are also welcome to bring your friends along).
Upcoming talks
Ali Elbadry: Probabilistic Sales Data Forecasting using Stochastic Differential Equations
SCCS Colloquium |
Financial forecasting of sales is vital for companies to make appropriate and informative decisions. Unlike point forecasting, probabilistic forecasting provides realistic uncertainty estimates, which result in more informed decisions. Additionally, interpretable solutions allow for understanding the rationale behind a model’s decision. Stochastic differential equations (SDE)-based models offer probabilistic and more interpretable solutions. This thesis presents an SDE model capable of providing probabilistic forecasting for the weekly sales of 45 Walmart stores. A neural network implementation is used to learn the parameters of the SDE. Extracted features, such as the month and the day of the weekly sale, are also investigated to further improve the SDE parameters estimation. More context of the sales in the previous and recent weeks to a specific date is additionally provided to the model in the form of time-delay embedding to further boost the estimation. Using the estimated SDE parameters, multiple trajectories of the time series of each Walmart store are simulated from which the confidence intervals are computed. Different feature scaling and transformations are experimented with and applied to the data. Two baseline models, a prophet model and a SDE-based one were additionally built to which all the experimented models were compared to. Two models were found to be superior to the rest, surpassing the SDE-based baseline and matching the prophet-based one. The first model, which used a 4-week time-delay embedding of the weekly sales, produced the most accurate results with realistic uncertainty estimates. However, the mean of the confidence intervals was roughly constant or featureless. The second model, which utilized a standard scaled 52-week time-delay embedding of the weekly sales, grasped the structures of the original time series extremely well and provided accurate predictions with realistic uncertainty estimates. Yet, the second model was less accurate than the first and generates wider confidence intervals.
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Contribute a talk
To register and schedule a talk, you should fill the form Colloquium Registration at least two weeks before the earliest preferred date. Keep in mind that we only have limited slots, so please plan your presentation early. In special cases, contact colloquium@mailsccs.in.tum.de.
Colloquium sessions are now on-campus. We have booked room MI 00.13.054 for WS24/25. You can either bring your own laptop or send us the slides as a PDF ahead of time. The projector only has an HDMI connection, so please bring your own adapters if necessary.
Do you want to attend but cannot make it in person? We now have a hybrid option. Simply join us through this BBB room: https://bbb.in.tum.de/shu-phv-eyq-rad
We invite students doing their Bachelor's or Master's thesis, as well as IDP, Guided Research, or similar projects at SCCS to give one 20min presentation to discuss their results and potential future work. The time for this is typically after submitting your final text. Check also with your study program regarding any requirements for a final presentation of your project work.
New: In regular times, we will now have slots for presenting early stage projects (talk time 2-10min). This is an optional opportunity for getting additional feedback early and there is no strict timeline.
Apart from students, we also welcome doctoral candidates and guests to present their projects.
During the colloquium, things usually go as follows:
- 10min before the colloquium starts, the speakers setup their equipment with the help of the moderator. The moderator currently is Ana Cukarska. Make sure to be using an easily identifiable name in the online session's waiting room.
- The colloquium starts with an introduction to the agenda and the moderator asks the speaker's advisor/host to put the talk into context.
- Your talk starts. The scheduled time for your talk is normally 20min with additional 5-10min for discussion.
- During the discussion session, the audience can ask questions, which are meant for clarification or for putting the talk into context. The audience can also ask questions in the chat.
- Congratulations! Your talk is over and it's now time to celebrate! Have you already tried the parabolic slides that bring you from the third floor to the Magistrale?
Do you remember a talk that made you feel very happy for attending? Do you also remember a talk that confused you? What made these two experiences different?
Here are a few things to check if you want to improve your presentation:
- What is the main idea that you want people to remember after your presentation? Do you make it crystal-clear? How quickly are you arriving to it?
- Which aspects of your work can you cover in the given time frame, with a reasonable pace and good depth?
- What can you leave out (but maybe have as back-up slides) to not confuse or overwhelm the audience?
- How are you investing the crucial first two minutes of your presentation?
- How much content do you have on your slides? Is all of it important? Will the audience know which part of a slide to look at? Will somebody from the last row be able to read the content? Will somebody with limited experience in your field have time to understand what is going on?
- Are the figures clear? Are you explaining the axes or any other features clearly?
In any case, make sure to start preparing your talk early enough so that you can potentially discuss it, rehearse it, and improve it.
Here are a few good videos to find out more:
- Simon Peyton Jones: How to Give a Great Research Talk (see also How to Write a Great Research Paper)
- Susan McConnell: Designing effective scientific presentations
- Jens Weller: Presenting Code
Did you know that the TUM English Writing Center can also help you with writing good slides?
Work with us!
Do your thesis/student project in Informatics / Mathematics / Physics: Student Projects at the SCCS.